🇺🇸 US STOCKS & CRYPTO MARKET REPORT Monday 1st November

🌍 DELTANODE | DAILY MARKET & MACRO BRIEF 📅 Monday, 2 November 2026

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₿ BITCOIN: KEY PRICE LEVELS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Current Price: $77,749 24H Change: -0.10% Market Sentiment: Fear (36) BTC Dominance: 59.97%

📉 Support Zones • $77,000–$77,500: Immediate support and current price reaction zone. • $76,000–$76,500: Next downside area to monitor. • $74,000–$75,000: Deeper support zone if selling accelerates.

📈 Resistance Zones • $78,000–$79,000: Immediate resistance and liquidity recovery zone. • $80,000–$80,500: Psychological resistance and potential recovery trigger. • $81,500–$82,000: Major overhead resistance, with the US spot ETF holder average cost basis around $81,500. • $83,000–$84,000: Higher resistance zone if bullish momentum returns.

🔍 Market Structure & What to Watch

BTC remains below the approximate $81,500 average cost basis of US spot ETF holders, indicating that a significant portion of ETF investors may still be underwater.

The $78K–$79K region is important. Glassnode previously identified buyer interest around this area after bids near $80K were swept.

A sustained recovery above $79K would be an initial improvement in short-term structure. Reclaiming $80K–$80.5K would strengthen the recovery case.

Losing the $77K region could expose BTC to the next downside liquidity zones around $76K and potentially $74K–$75K.

🎯 DeltaNode Scenarios

• Bullish: Hold $77K–$77.5K, reclaim $79K and establish acceptance above $80K.

• Bearish: Lose $77K with sustained selling pressure, opening the way toward $76K and $74K–$75K.

• Neutral: Continue consolidating between $77K and $79K while waiting for fresh spot demand and macro catalysts.

₿ Bitcoin: $77,749 | ▼ 0.10% Ξ Ethereum: $2,282 | ▲ 0.74%

🌐 Global Crypto Market Cap: $2.61T | ▼ 0.24% 📊 24H Trading Volume: $47.41B | ▲ 22.7% ₿ BTC Dominance: 59.97% | ▲ 0.06%

😨 Fear & Greed Index: 36 (Fear) 🔄 Altcoin Season Index: 46/100

Trending Coins: • AriaAI: +43.85% • Everlyn AI: +20.77% • Sophon: +12.88% • Moonbirds: +2.45% • Pi: -0.04%

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ₿ CRYPTO: THE BIG DEVELOPMENTS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

1️⃣ Strategy Hints at Another Bitcoin Purchase

Michael Saylor posted "We found room for even more orange" on Sunday alongside Strategy's Bitcoin holdings chart.

The message follows a familiar pattern that has preceded the company's Monday purchase disclosures.

• Last disclosed purchase: 267 BTC on October 19. • Total holdings: 848,517 BTC. • No new purchase has been officially confirmed yet.

The market is watching Monday's treasury filings for confirmation.

2️⃣ Strive Signals Another Bitcoin Accumulation

Strive CEO Matt Cole posted "New engine activated" alongside the company's Bitcoin holdings chart.

Its previous disclosed purchase was 6,182 BTC during the week ending October 23, at an average price of approximately $82,732.

• Total holdings: Approximately 43,000 BTC. • Roughly 500 BTC behind Twenty One Capital.

The company has not explained what the new engine refers to.

3️⃣ Corporate Bitcoin Buying: Does It Support Prices?

Strategy and Strive continue accumulating Bitcoin even as prices remain under pressure.

Recent public-company accumulation reached approximately $510 million in a week.

Corporate purchases create additional demand and can provide marginal price support. However, this does not guarantee a sustainable market floor.

The risk is financing dependency. If share premiums decline, investor demand weakens or companies are forced to sell treasury holdings, this buying pressure can reverse.

4️⃣ Binance Gradually Restores Withdrawals After Security Incident

Binance began reopening withdrawals in phases following the October 29 security incident.

The exchange reported that approximately 95% of the $6.3 billion affected amount is now covered.

Ten assets, including BTC, ETH, USDT, SOL and XRP, were among the first to receive full backing and withdrawal access.

The FBI reportedly linked the attack to TraderTraitor, a North Korean-linked group associated with last year's Bybit theft.

Important developments: • Customers withdrew $4.65 billion. • Deposits totalled $1.01 billion. • Net outflows reached $3.64 billion in just 9.5 hours. • Approximately 2.1% of Binance's reported $171 billion in assets left the exchange. • Binance says customer losses will not be passed on to users.

Binance's full proof-of-reserves report has been delayed by one day and is now expected tomorrow. The exchange says the cryptographic computation requires approximately 40–50 hours.

DefiLlama's reported Binance asset balance declined from approximately $144.9 billion on Thursday to $128.31 billion this morning. This change also reflects market-price movements and stolen assets, not withdrawals alone.

Key question: Can Binance restore confidence through transparent reserve verification and continued withdrawal access?

5️⃣ Physical Crypto Attacks Are Increasing

Two brothers from Texas were sentenced to 180 and 186 months in prison for kidnapping a family at gunpoint for more than nine hours and forcing the victim to transfer over $8 million in cryptocurrency.

According to CertiK, wrench attacks reached $124.2 million in the first half of 2026, compared with $10.5 million during the same period last year.

A wrench attack involves physically threatening or assaulting a cryptocurrency holder to force access to wallets, private keys or funds.

This highlights a growing security risk beyond exchange hacks and smart-contract vulnerabilities.

6️⃣ DeepSeek Proposes Parallel AI Coding Architecture

DeepSeek's Harness team proposed a new Super-agent architecture on Sunday.

The system allows one AI agent to coordinate multiple tasks simultaneously, reducing the need for constant human supervision.

The underlying argument is that a model's capability limits the complexity of an individual task, while human attention limits how many tasks can run in parallel.

The current implementation remains a prototype, not an officially released product.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GLOBAL MARKETS: 5 THINGS TO WATCH ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

💾 1. Semiconductor Sell-Off Spreads Across Asia

Friday's semiconductor sell-off was significant.

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: -7.2%. • Intel: -28.58%, its biggest daily decline in more than 40 years. • Qualcomm: Down more than 11%. • AMD: Down more than 10%. • Arm, Sandisk, Applied Materials, ASML and Broadcom: All down more than 5%.

Broader US markets also weakened: • Nasdaq Composite: -2.86%. • S&P 500: -1.82%.

However, Asian markets showed mixed recovery on Monday.

South Korea: • KOSPI: +2.24% to 5,859.08. • SK Hynix: +3.81%. • Samsung Electronics: +1.78%.

Japan: • Nikkei: -0.33%. • Tokyo Electron: +5.16%, after forecasting a 50.6% increase in full-year profit and announcing a potential ¥150 billion buyback. • Kioxia: -15.78%, following a disappointing profit outlook.

US futures recovered some losses: • Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.8%. • S&P 500 futures: +0.4%.

Next catalyst: AMD reports tomorrow, followed by Qualcomm and Arm on Wednesday.

📌 DeltaNode View: Friday's sell-off hit semiconductor stocks broadly. Monday's Asian session showed that investors are beginning to differentiate between companies based on earnings expectations and forward guidance. AMD's results will be particularly important.

🗳️ 2. US Midterm Elections: Political Uncertainty Meets Markets

US midterm elections take place tomorrow.

Prediction markets currently indicate: • Democrats winning the House: 95% on Polymarket. • Democrats winning the Senate: Approximately 72%. • Democrats winning both chambers: Approximately 71%.

Kalshi places the Democrats' House probability at 93.3% and Senate probability at 71%.

The Republican-controlled Senate currently stands at 53–47.

The RealClearPolling generic ballot average: • Democrats: 51.4%. • Republicans: 43.2%.

More than $1.4 billion has reportedly been traded on midterm election prediction markets.

The key issue is not simply whether Democrats win. Much of that outcome is already priced into prediction markets.

A surprise Senate result or delayed vote count could create volatility.

Another geopolitical concern: Axios reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Donald Trump to consider resuming strikes against Iran after the elections.

📌 DeltaNode View: The House outcome appears heavily priced in. The Senate remains less certain. Markets should also watch the geopolitical implications of the election, particularly US policy toward Iran.

🔐 3. Binance: $3.64 Billion in Net Outflows

The Binance situation remains one of the most important crypto-market developments.

Following the reopening of withdrawals: • $4.65 billion withdrawn. • $1.01 billion deposited. • $3.64 billion net outflow in 9.5 hours.

Binance's complete proof-of-reserves report is now expected tomorrow rather than today.

The exchange says approximately 95% of the affected $6.3 billion is covered.

The distinction matters: proof of reserves helps verify asset backing, but it is not a complete substitute for an independent assessment of liabilities, liquidity and operational risks.

📌 DeltaNode View: The next important signal is whether Binance can demonstrate full asset coverage while maintaining normal withdrawal operations. Monitor exchange balances and stablecoin flows rather than treating outflows alone as proof of insolvency.

🍎 4. Apple Reports: First Results Under John Ternus

Apple reports its fiscal Q4 results tonight.

This is the first earnings report under new CEO John Ternus.

Expected revenue: • Company guidance: $111.7B–$113.7B. • Wall Street consensus: Approximately $113.3B. • Expected EPS: $1.99. • Gross margin guidance: 47%–48%.

The quarter covers June 28 to September 26, meaning it includes only nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales.

The iPhone Duo, starting at $1,999, went on sale October 23 and will contribute to the December quarter.

The December quarter is therefore the bigger catalyst.

• Street revenue consensus: Approximately $153.4B. • Loop Capital expects 79 million iPhones. • Broader analyst expectations are around 85 million units.

Apple has also previously warned about tighter supply across iPhones, Macs and iPads.

📌 DeltaNode View: The headline earnings number matters, but forward guidance, iPhone demand and supply constraints will likely determine the market reaction.

🛢️ 5. Oil Falls on a Potential Strait of Hormuz Agreement

Oil prices declined after Iran indicated that a possible agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days.

Monday's movement: • Brent: Down approximately 3% to $110/barrel. • WTI: Down approximately 3.4% to $100.62/barrel.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Qatar had helped reduce the proposed reopening timeline from seven days to two.

The proposed arrangement reportedly involves US measures on day one and reopening the strait on day two.

Iran's conditions include lifting recent US sanctions and releasing frozen funds.

Donald Trump said negotiations were going fine.

Important macro context: • Goldman Sachs estimates the geopolitical risk premium at approximately $27 per barrel. • Goldman raised its year-end Brent forecast from $90 to $105. • January Brent settled at $113.43 on Friday. • OPEC+ maintained its December production targets. • The next OPEC+ meeting is November 29.

📌 DeltaNode View: The decline reflects a reduction in geopolitical risk premium, not necessarily a structural improvement in oil supply. Any breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the move.

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✈️ Ryanair: Fuel Costs Become a Major Concern

Ryanair reported: • Half-year profit after tax: €2.15B, down 15% from €2.54B. • Passengers: 125.8 million, up 6%. • Revenue: €10.08B, up 3%. • Average fares: €55.70, down 4%.

The airline has hedged 80% of its fuel requirements through March 2027 at $67/barrel.

However, it expects fuel expenses could increase by approximately €2 billion in the financial year ending March 2028 if current forward prices persist.

The company warned that Middle East tensions could keep aviation fuel prices elevated into 2027.

🚆 Alstom: Shares Fall More Than 25%

French railway manufacturer Alstom suffered a major share-price decline after cutting its annual margin forecast.

Problems involving Coradia Max trains in Germany affected half-year profitability.

The company now expects negative free cash flow for the year, reversing its previous positive outlook.

Shares fell more than 25%, reaching their lowest level since March 2024.

🇦🇺 Australia: Fifth Rate Hike Expected in 2026

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision tomorrow.

Current cash rate: 4.60%.

Expected decision: Increase to 4.85%.

All four major Australian banks: • Commonwealth Bank • NAB • Westpac • ANZ

are forecasting a 25-basis-point increase.

Inflation: • Headline CPI: 4.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4.0%. • Trimmed mean inflation: +1.0% quarter-on-quarter. • RBA's forecast for trimmed mean: 0.8%.

Markets are pricing approximately an 87% probability of a hike.

A fifth rate increase this year would reinforce the inflation challenge facing central banks.

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Monday, November 2 • Apple Q4 earnings. • Continued Binance withdrawal reopening. • Monday treasury filings from Strategy and potentially Strive. • US market reaction to the semiconductor sell-off.

Tuesday, November 3 • US midterm elections. • RBA interest-rate decision: Expected 4.85%. • AMD earnings. • Binance proof-of-reserves report expected. • Further developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

Wednesday, November 4 • Qualcomm earnings. • Arm earnings. • Continued assessment of US election results.

Thursday, November 5 • Bank of England monetary policy decision.

Friday, November 6 • US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 DELTANODE: WHAT MATTERS THIS WEEK ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

1. Bitcoin Treasury Demand: Watch Strategy and Strive filings. Confirmed purchases could provide marginal demand support, but the market needs sustained accumulation.

2. Binance Liquidity: The $3.64B net outflow is important. Tomorrow's proof of reserves and withdrawal activity will be critical for exchange confidence.

3. Semiconductor Earnings: AMD, Qualcomm and Arm will help determine whether Friday's sell-off was a temporary repricing or a deeper deterioration in chip-sector expectations.

4. Oil & Geopolitics: The proposed Hormuz agreement is the key variable for crude prices, inflation expectations and global risk sentiment.

5. Central Bank Policy: The RBA and Bank of England decisions, followed by US employment data, will influence rate expectations and broader liquidity conditions.

6. US Political Risk: Election outcomes could influence fiscal expectations, regulation and geopolitical policy.

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Bitcoin is holding around $77.7K despite the Binance security incident and significant exchange outflows. However, Fear & Greed remains at 36, indicating continued market caution.

Corporate treasury buying could provide support, but it should not be confused with confirmed institutional demand across the wider market.

Equities are dealing with a semiconductor repricing, while oil is reacting to the possibility of reduced Middle East tensions.

The coming days bring several high-impact catalysts: Binance's proof of reserves, US elections, Apple and semiconductor earnings, central-bank decisions and US employment data.

Our focus remains on confirmed flows, liquidity, macro conditions and price behaviour rather than headlines alone.

⚠️ DeltaNode Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Verify data independently and manage risk accordingly.

Δ DELTANODE | Understand the Market. Control the Risk.